Socrates said the only true wisdom is
knowing when you know nothing but that’s not actually easy for humans to do
because our brains want us to think that we are awesome
in 1995 McArthur wheeler walked into a bank in Pittsburgh ready to rob it. He
didn’t wear a mask he didn’t have like a fake mustache he was just there robbing
a bank in full view of everyone he even smiled at the security cameras before
leaving and going to a second bank to rob that one – later that night the
security footage allowed the police to pick him up and take him off to jail
which shocked him he was shook I wore the juice he famously exclaimed wheeler
believed that rubbing lemon juice on his skin would render him invisible to
videotape cameras this is a cognitive bias at work and it inspired two
psychologists to create some experiments to understand it better cognitive biases
are everywhere have you ever met someone who has one like perhaps during a group
project at school or during an argument with a stubborn uncle or when you had to
toil alongside that co-worker you know the one I’m talking about
somebody who believed they knew things but really they didn’t believing you
know something you don’t is called the dunning-kruger effect it’s named for the
two psychologists who upon hearing about wheelers bank robberies formulated a set
of experiments to determine if wheelers Joos beliefs were due to some kind of
cognitive bias cognitive biases allow us to convince ourselves that something is
true even if the reality is different cognitive biases protect us from reality
they let us process information more quickly and they help us make decisions
more quickly but that doesn’t mean that they are good cognitive biases are
essentially a subjective social reality the dunning-kruger effect is in a
nutshell a way for everyone to feel good an above average internally because most
of us are actually completely average dunning-kruger can help explain why
people feel that they’re experts even though they know very little about
something a problem sometimes described by this graph the vertical axis is
confidence and the horizontal is experience imagine someone spent an hour
the wikipedia page about global warming then took to twitter to try in school
some climate scientists who have literally spent their lives studying it
you don’t have to imagine this because you know it it happens all the time this
cognitive bias is extremely common for example a 1992 survey of the engineers
at one company found that 42% of them 42% believed they were in the top 5% of
all the engineers at the company but that’s not actually possible 42 cannot
be 5 another example is driving one study found most people believe that
they are above average at driving but most people cannot be above the
average another survey of people aged 77 years and older jived with that as well
most assuming they were average or above average but again that’s not actually
possible most people have to be average because
that’s how statistics work the psychologists who first realized this
bias was part of the human fabric did so in for studies humor logic and reasoning
and English grammar we’ll just take one in the humor study the psychologists
asked two groups to rank jokes on a scale of 1 to 11 1 being not at all
funny and 11 being very funny group a was a set of average Cornell
undergraduates in Group B was a small set of professional comedians the idea
was to see if average people would believe that they were above average at
picking out what was funny or as good as professionals after group a had ranked
the jokes the researchers asked them to compare their ability to pick what was
funny against the professional comedians you know to rate themselves and
unsurprisingly on average everyone overrated their skills remember 50 is
average and the whole group together said that they did 66 which I would rank
as an 8 out of 11 on our joke scale but this is where the surprise comes in
those who did the worst placed themselves in the 58th percentile on
average they believed that they were better than 57 other people out of a
hundred their real score the 12th percentile they were worse than 88 other
people these were the victims of this newly-discovered cognitive bias the idea
that people with a little bit of knowledge or skill in an area
believe that they are better than they are Dunning and Kruger went on to show
that this bias exists multiple times with different experiments like when
assessing effective leadership raising children constructing a solid logical
argument and so on generally in each study the participants
in the bottom 25% of scores consistently ranked themselves in the 70th percentile
it is worth pointing out that self-confidence is extremely important
self-esteem is valuable we should all feel good about ourselves that said we
should also have a good assessment of what we’re good at and what we are not
good at for example I’m pretty good at making science videos I am not very good
at kung-fu farming or financial policy it’s easy to dismiss Dunning Kruger is
just over inflated ego but that’s not actually what’s happening even ego can
see its own limits and there are some serious examples of people not even
realizing their own failures thanks to this bias these experiments work not
just in humor illogical reasoning and rules of grammar but also have been
replicated in math skills wine-tasting chess firearm safety among hunters and
medical knowledge among surgeons and that’s where things get really serious a
74 year old woman awoke from a simple spinal fusion surgery in terrible pain
because her surgeon believed himself to be one of the best around instead he’s
now in prison for life he’s accused of maiming multiple patients and causing
two deaths meanwhile he claimed quote everybody is doing it wrong and that he
was quote the best in the whole state it’s pretty amazing that it took us so
long to give dunning-kruger a name because it is everywhere the more we
look for it the more we see it that said dunning-kruger doesn’t apply to
everything namely in areas where it’s easy to compare baking for example if
you assume you’re an amazing Baker then you bake a cake and it’s inedible it’s
pretty hard to deny that you’re a terrible Baker one paper I read said
that most people who play golf don’t believe that they are as good as Tiger
Woods when surveyed but I would guess if we asked they would still rate
themselves above average because an online survey of over 1,700 average
adults in Great Britain found that one in eight men believed that they could
score a point against Serena Williams the woman ranked number one in tennis
for more than six years that said it’s very important to point out the
dunning-kruger effect is gender neutral it applies to us all interestingly
though Dunning Kruger found the people at the top don’t
overestimate themselves in fact quite the opposite
dunning-kruger found the best around tend to rank themselves below their
actual performance yeah Nikkei has two parts people in the bottom 25% ranked
themselves at near the top and people in the top 25 tend to rank themselves a bit
lower than their actual score this can help us understand why it is hard to
counter dunning-kruger in order to know you don’t know anything you gotta have
to know something an example if your cognitive bias has you assume that
you’re amazing at driving but you only drive it and say rural
areas of the desert Southwest how would you ever find out that you’re bad at it
you would need to drive around others or take classes to learn good driving
habits or ride with someone who is objectively considered a good driver to
see what you’re doing wrong and then get that critique and recognize it and then
learn you think many of those people who believe they’re good drivers are gonna
do those things yeah I didn’t think so either in a bit of follow-up research
Dunning has found people who are low performers in reality are not good at
accepting criticism and often don’t show interest in self-improvement
he told Forbes quote research subjects were willing to criticize their own
previous poor skills once they were trained up and could see the difference
between their previous poor performance and their new and improved performance
but to get them to train up on their own was very unlikely if we never change the
knowledge that we assume we have then we can just keep on going thinking we’re
amazing who doesn’t want to do that even if we’re not yeh cognitive biases in the
end Dunning Kruger is a cognitive bias that can affect anyone and everyone if
you’re actually above average at any task you might be undervaluing yourself
and if your average or below average at some other tasks you’re probably
assuming you’re pretty good in the age of the internet everyone can be a
quote-unquote expert we all have access to infinite information our minds are
drawn to learn a little bit about a lot of things and that little bit of
information is enough to make us weak minded humans feel confident about what
we know even when we know nothing and add to that two global platforms of
social media and then everyone can feel like an expert and most won’t accept any
critique let’s face it I have probably been one of those people and maybe you
have too it’s crucial in today’s overstimulated
world to be able to differentiate a real expert from an overconfident novice and
that goes for understanding your value as well the key is know your talent
understand your pitfalls take criticism and keep on learning way back in 1871
long before we knew what Dunning Kruger was Charles Darwin wrote ignorance more
frequently begets confidence than does knowledge and it turns out he was right
I wonder if Darwin would have rated himself as being above average on that
one thanks so much for watching after school it was awesome to get to work
with mark on this I hope y’all liked it if you want to watch more science videos
check out my channel uno dos of tres I make a new video every week that
scratches that curiosity itch that we all have here’s a recent one on the
golden ratio and how it’s not quite the mystical magical thing that was promised

Tagged : # # # # # # # # # # #

Dennis Veasley

100 thoughts on “The Dunning-Kruger Effect – Cognitive Bias – Why Incompetent People Think They Are Competent”

  1. I’m so excited about this! I did my best not to Dunning-Kruger this script about Dunning-Kruger, does that make me on the other side of the big spike in the graph or am I … … hmm. I’ll have to think on this. I hope y’all love it, Mark did a great job with the animation! 💕🥳

  2. The irony is that you totally exhibit the effect in this video. It's not "why stupid people think they are smart". It's an explanation of how learning a little bit about a subject can make someone over estimate how much they know.

    Stupid people think they are smart, because they are stupid. It's unrelated to the D-K effect.

  3. Let's say there are 100 people having scores between 1 and 100. If 99 are scoring 100 and 1 score less than 100, 99 people are technically above average. It doesn't need to be 50/50. Unless you're talking median. Know the difference.

  4. 6:56 demonstrates the worst inequality that exists in the world.
    The fear of what is “UGLY” and everyone has this to some degree because we all have perceptions about it. Some people definitely have it worse tho

    Essentially the bottom 25 people all hold distinctly ugly characteristics. Even the Einstein just has cartoonish proportions compared to the ugly fucker on the far left

  5. Serena Williams will double fault 5% of the time which equates to any guy scoring on avg between 2 and 3 points in an avg tennis match. But somehow I think these out of shape guys believe they'll return her serve

  6. I don't care if I'm right, or if I'm wrong. Man, as society and history has proven, is that no civilization has used its wisdom for anything other than its own demise. What good is knowledge when this is our fate?

  7. I like how you balance your brain:) Take credit for what you do, but don't let your ego get the best of your own ability

  8. My roommate has this cognitive bias, he's in indian navy and thinks he owns the whole world,when ever i say something he immediately disagrees and say's some bullshit about how he knows more about it, he even sounds confident, so i doubt myself sometimes..then my other roommate who's been with him for quite sometime.
    told me about his behaviour and from then on we didn't even bother to listen to him.

  9. Theoretically this video is a prime example of the effect. Simply because everyone has a general bias for outside stimulus and statistics tend to sway in favor of what they intend to demonstrate like a metaphorical monkey wrench. Regardless most people suck and piggy back off what a select few has invented. Easy to make a video, hard to create a place to host it.

  10. Anyone that watches Eric Dubay's YouTube videos on flat Earth would also question the shape of the Earth. Flat Earth Society is controlled opposition and nonsensical. Not saying I believe the Earth is flat, but KNOWING it's round definitely falls into the category of "thinking you know something that you don't." You don't KNOW the Earth is round. You're taught that and you're also taught never to question authority. That's what public school is for. To condition you to never question authority. It's why we have so many useless eaters and useful idiots in the world now.

  11. Every time I hear about this I think of a class mate that was adamant she was a scientist. Even after getting PhDs most of my class mates won't call themselves scientists. This individual in an undergraduate biology class made the claim though.

  12. Wait?! The juice didn't keep him loose?! I would have thought that wouldve been an easy peasy lemon squeezy fool proof plan.

  13. Im bipolar with 145 IQ and i am just a dummy. I love losing debates bc thats when I learn a thing or two about a thing or two!

  14. Psalm 36 The Lord has put an Oracle in my mouth regarding the sinfulness of the wicked. There is no fear of God in his eyes. For in his own eyes he flatters himself so much that he is unable to detect and hate his iniquity.
    Worshipping God humbles me. I know I'm a n ego maniac with an inferiority complex. Oh what a wretched man I am. I thank God for sending Jesus to save a wretch like me. Truly His grace and mercy is amazing because I do not deserve the love he shows me.

  15. Why would you steal somebody’s video word by word. This is sad. Come up with your own ideas and don’t steal others when the info is already out there

  16. Someone needs to revive this test and subject it to married couples, between the years of 1 to 20 years of marriage.

  17. What if a stupid person finds out that saying they dont know everything makes them seem smarter? Does this mean they actually arent that stupid? 🤔

  18. Based on my experiences, I think anybody can eventually overcome cognitive bias. It’s just about exposing people to different perspectives in such a way that it would allow them to actually think about it essentially. Like, boomers are the first thing I can think of when I heard the description of cognitive bias, and after showing my mom just, my honest perspective of the way she’s treated me in the past, and convinced her that her judgement may not always be correct, I’ve noticed that she’s started to question more of the information she hears. I’ve never considered myself to necessarily be “smart” or even a “voice of reason”, even if other people actually see me as that(honestly it just doesn’t matter to me), but I know that what the mind thinks, is subjective. The sensations you feel… I’m thinking are possibly a mix of objective, and subjective
    Because what the nerves feel, eyes see, ears hear, etc. feels what is objective
    But
    The signals it sends towards the brain, is subjective, you choose how to react or how to feel about what you’re sensing
    Then the body of course, what it does, is objective. And when you think about it…
    Mind, “soul”, body, by the way, I think that’s a very interesting connection. All information is connected through the way you choose to process things based off of your experience, and what you sense during those experiences. And all information in the world is connected in some way.
    But if what the mind thinks and knows is subjective, then that makes intelligence itself subjective. And I have had some pretty smart friends who think of themselves as being intellectual “superiors” to other people, including me, and I get the feeling that we all know at least one person like that in our personal lives or from the media we consume. I just hate how people just do not know how to get off of their high horse sometimes though honestly though. Every character has strengths and flaws.

  19. I’d never in a million years claim to be or defend being smart, simply because being dumb has more chill to it.

  20. though serena is built like a man she is still a woman, inferior pretty much in ever respect to men in terms of strength and dexterity…. teen, men amateurs will beat the best of the best female athletes on the whole with regards to those attributes.

  21. I paid this price at the stock market, it cost me a fortune! 5 Years later I admitted that I did not get it, 5 years after that everything turned around and I become slowly expert in picking the long term winners. Today Im a professional money manager and hedge fund partnership owner. I was stubborn and never gave up.

  22. Climate sceince, may I purpose a question? If cow farts are somehow "changing" the climate… in the past was the collective volume of animals ripping ass not """"warming"""" or omni directionally """"changing""" the climate. The massive bison population in North America, was their asses not of equal or more volume of the cows today? … That's the thing EXPERTS in the modern world CAN be propagandists, that is another factor. Many people in the modern world who are stupid, beleive they know a lot because they are stupid people who have spent a lifetime in social conditioing. Take for example, cholesterol and saturated fat HEAL the body. Now would your big pharma expert doctor be aware of such things? Or would they prescribe you statins that literally induce cellular death.

  23. The people that need to see this video most wont click on it because they think they already know what its all about… sad.

  24. My dad took my golfing and declared I was the new Tiger Woods. He said he had taken lessons for 20 years but I was better. I said, dad, it’s just beginners luck.

  25. I like how the thumbnail portrays stupid people as fat, and ugly. It goes to show that most people assume another's intelligence based off of appearances. Not that there's anything wrong with that, it just is what it is with our species. But my point is someone who appears to be a slob, could also be a genius.

  26. I wonder how many offensive drawings/pictures of white people you can squeeze in one video. You managed about 1001 in this one.

  27. You are not as good as you think in making science videos. UN "climate change" was first "global cooling". No, the science doesn't get any better and their claim the world had 10 years to go was bs in the 70s like AOC's bs claim that we have 12 years.

  28. funny how you draw all the biased individuals as ugly or fat, when in reality some of the most egotistical, uninformed people i know think that way because they're conventionally good looking.

  29. Better Than Yesterday published the YouTube video "Why Do Stupid People Think They're Smart? The Dunning Kruger Effect (animated)" last year on October 29, 2018. (https://youtu.be/GJz66wm95-M) It is almost identical to this video. Did someone say plagiarism? You would think After Skool would have given some credit to Better Than Yesterday.

  30. smart people will admit when they do not know something, yet will be open minded about learning about it.

    ignorant and dumb people will eiher say they know, or not care about your knowledge.

  31. Yup I come across this allot and have dedicated my life twords the collection of knowledge and especially wisdom in experience. Very interesting great video keep on making them.

  32. Yeah talking to my uncle really let me know just how stupid a person is. Guy thinks he’s a fucking wizard at things.

  33. How much of a connection is there between this and narcissist personality disorder? I knew someone who was certifiably narcissist and her IQ was well below average (not from from retarded), yet she always insisted upon thinking for other people, with consistently disastrous results. Then there's the leader of a certain world power, but I won't call any names.

  34. You ever seen comments on Instagram? 95% of those people are fucking idiots even though they think they’re smart.

  35. 0:50 maybe he was trying to get away from his ‘beloved’ wife , playing with you while at it , yeah , Socrates said , and i declare i don’t know about peoples dumbness, you seem to know though , what’s going on inside heads

  36. I don't know why they would use humor and jokes as a test? What is or isn't funny is so subjective from one person to the next. This is why Saturday night live is no longer funny all these people go to school to learn to be comedians so it's assumed that they're funny, I don't think so.

  37. I feel like this might apply in politics. Example: thinking someone is the best candidate because they’re not researching the differences, or thinking someone is the best candidate because they’re able to speak to your individual experience.

  38. Darwin?? I thought you said you are scientific in your nature.. he darwin lap dog darwin.. the burgeoning of the greatest lie ever told..

  39. I feel like they missed an important aspect of what is going on with this particular cognitive dissonance. It has always been my understanding that a reason people over-evaluate themselves is because they don't have the requisite ability to determine what would make them good at something. But maybe my bias is showing?

  40. Lol at how he thought it was incredible that 1 in 8 thought they could score a point against Serena, If they know how to serve and play full match against her then yes, there's a good chance they can get A "single point", at some point it's possible they'll serve above average, she's not taking it seriously (cause why would she) and a point gets through, but Dunning Kruger on his tennis knowledge right. Unless he's referring to a game point in which case no that's not possible.

  41. To be fair. Williams is about 200th or lower ranked in Men’s tennis. By no means would I ever claim I could best her but still. She’s not “the best” she is “the best in women’s”.

  42. Hi Everyone,
    Please stop saying things like intelligence is knowing that you don’t know!!
    Intelligence is knowing based on proven repeatable evidence , and applying this knowledge in you professional and personal life. Intelligence is also knowing what you don’t know for sure and teaching yourself how to know it.

  43. Confusius if I spelled that right said, " a man that knows what he knows, and knows what he doesn't know, is a man that really knows." I get told, u think u know everything. But I think I'm confident when I know the facts and am willing, all too willing to say, I don't know. It's certainly not cool to pretend to have knowledge u don't just to "win". And I think too many ppl are concerned with "winning", and aren't to concerned with "truth". It's about dominance, not facts. That leads ppl to lie to themselves and even easier others. If u lie to urself, u lie to others with ease. Today there was a douchebag that was parked in a private driveway, with a no parking sign. The dogs of the neighborhood barking away. I pointed out the sign and said no parking. He says, I'm not parked. His engine was running. I doubted myself, maybe he's not because the engines running technically. I still argued that he was there awhile and maybe it's time to move on. No he asserts. I later looked up the defining of parked, it means to halt the vehicle for an extended time. It has nothing to do with the engine being on or off. He used the position I'm not parked to assert he had a right to be there. Maybe he was too ignorant to question if he was indeed parked, but ignorance likely had little to do with it. The truth wouldn't serve his position, to fool himself and others would, it wouldn't be advantageous to his position to question himself or the situation. It wasn't about right or wrong, it was about dominance and serving himself. So idiots likely value themselves, advantages and dominance much more then they do truth.

  44. 6:19
    Didn't a low-ranked male tennis player completely decimate her in a bunch of sessions? Why, in that case, would it be so far-fetched to believe an average guy could score one point?

  45. I think the best way forward is to be skeptical of everything and constantly question even your most cherished beliefs. Like when Descartes’ decided to try and doubt everything he thought he knew in his Meditations to see if he was absolutely certain about anything.

    However, this is a scary task so most people (including myself) don’t do it enough. Or even at all. We don’t want our world view to be crushed. I see this particularly with religious belief.

  46. Wouldn’t the Dunning-Krueger effect apply to religious people? They believe they know a god exists without any proof or reason.

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