please like and comment on the video
below that will allow me to produce better quality videos and more of them
in the future so here is a tennis trading tip for you
tennis tournaments especially Grand Slams not all of them but definitely the
Grand Slams are seated so you have the first round with 128 players in it and
the first seed will be on the left-hand side of the draw and the number 2 seed
will be on the right hand side of the draw so in the first rounds there’s no
chance of them meeting in the next round and obviously that you can’t have a
hundred and twenty rows because half the minimun knocked out you get the round of
64 and then 32 16 8 4 and then 2 is the final so the reason the tournaments are
seeded is those so that hopefully seeds 1 & 2 meet in the final or definitely in
the later stages that’s the way the tennis tournaments have run their
designs like that for a number of reasons but obviously you know if you’re
going to charge people for grand 5 grand to get a seat at the final you want the
best final possible and the way to do those to seed them so that close me to
the final certainly the top players end up clustered in that of a group at the
very top now the consequence of that is when you look at the very early rounds
in Grand Slams you end up with Novak Djokovic maybe meeting a qualifier and
the difference in skill level is absolutely vast so you may find that a
Djokovic or a Murray or one of the higher seeded players ends up meeting a
much much lower seeded player or maybe even a qualifier in the early rounds of
the tournament and therefore when the market goes up you’ll find that sort of
Murray is 102 103 105 or sometimes you get 101 to win that particular match and
the interesting thing about this is that when you look at the dynamics of exactly
how the match could play out you wouldn’t expect a person trading and
very very low as 105 or lower to lose it does happen it’s happened a lot already
in the French Open it will happen at Wimbledon
and the way that the matches tend to be played out is the lower graded player
the lower ranked player that’s miles off the skill level of the seeded player
will generally go for it in the first set they’ll try a few shots and they
really try and put the pressure on and they’ll see if they can attempt to get a
break or do something interesting in that first set now a lot of the times it
just vanishes and you know nothing happens but when you look at the steps
overall generally the odds are about right you know somebody trading at 1:05
will win in a rate equivalent to the odds that they go off of so where’s the
value where’s the trading strategy within that well the thing about tennis
and a lot of sports in Stanley is that if the price starts over here and you
look at the long-term chance of them winning and it’s over here in other
words they’re pretty much level you may wonder where the value is but when
you’re trading you’re not interested in that you couldn’t care less whether
that’s the case what you’re trading is the uncertainty of you know the price
starting here and ending here so it starts at 105 and ends at 101 now if you
back it at 105 and trade out at 101 you’ll make a small amount but generally
that’s not where the opportunity is if you look at tennis what tends to happen
is that qualifier that lower ranked player will try and put pressure on the
serve of his opponent and his opponent may just be thinking well you know I’ll
play this game out don’t do anything strenuous blah blah blah has his mind on
the course of finals and so on so they won’t really really go for it
so the lower ranked player will always put a bit of pressure on there so when
you look at the graph very often it doesn’t go from 105 to 101 like that or
straight away and you may actually find it meanders a bit before it comes back
down and finishes at the level at what you look at and you trade that
meandering so early rounds tennis with very very short priced favorites that’s
generally where I’m looking from setting myself up to be able to profit if
there’s any deviation on that curve when it goes up and then you know eventually
comes back in the other direction now every now and again you lay somebody at
102 103 101 105 and they go on and lose it’s happened already at the French Open
happens within an amazing the regular occurrence much more frequently than you
imagined it would do but of course there are loads of matches
you know that’s going to happen but even when you get a match which is one
comfortably three sets to love or two sets to level in the women’s you may
find that initially the price drifts a little bit and it’s that that you’re
trying to catch that a little bit of a drift the slow starter the person that
is higher ranked but tends to take it easy in the earlier rounds you can see
these patterns developing all the time and II Mario’s a classic we’ve already
seen it already this week we’ve seen it twice and I’ve just seen it again where
the odds start very low but they drift a bit and then he eventually gets himself
into gear and goes on to win the match and every now and again it was a classic
a few years ago I think it was Murray the potato starchy where he almost lost
it and then he eventually turned around and came back to us see if I can dig out
the graafian and fly it up on the screen but in the early rounds of tennis you’re
going to get really really short odds there’s really not much point in backing
it because there’s a lot of risk in there but if you lay it and you’re
watching the match where you identify a slow starter or in all of those
variables basically often find matches where the price starts drift and then it
eventually comes back down when they close out the game and it doesn’t even
need to be that they’ve lost that first set it just needs to be that they’ve
been put under pressure at some point or you know maybe they did get a breakdown
or maybe they’ve got a couple of breaks down or maybe they just fluffed theirs
first service game or something like that if you want to identify matches and
where those key points are and fire up tennis trader and what you’ll be able to
do is you’ll be able to identify exactly how those odds going to move and when
they’re going to move according to the score line so you can anticipate and
what’s likely to happen the early round tournaments uncompetitive matches
generally that’s what I’d recommend that’s what I do I’m laying at very very
low odds if the player goes on to absolutely demolish the other player
there’s not much you can do about that but in a lot of matches many many more
than you would imagine and the price will start to drips before eventually
coming back and the player closes out the entire match and every now and again
you get an unexpected bonus and that’s what I recommend you do in early rounds
of tennis tournaments you

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Dennis Veasley

5 thoughts on “Betfair Trading strategies – Profiting from the early rounds in Tennis Grand Slams”

  1. Funny , I have been looking at this in the french open and there is a lot of opportunity especially in like you say the early sets.. You don't need to look for an upset just someone who will put up some resistance. Even today,Andy Murray today started at 1.38 but went up to > 2.. He seems to take his time breaking down his opponents so there are gaps there.

    Best thing about the strategy of really low odds is the low liability means you have some good value and lower risk.

  2. the thing to be wary of when trading tennis, is injuries. which makes it important to not have big liabilities at stake, a sudden injury can see the price rapidly drop or rise, no matter what the score may be, turning a good value position into a losing one. at least in team games, injured players can be replaced, but tennis can be dangerous in that respect.

  3. Solid advice as usual Peter. Tennis is a new market for me. Do your trading courses cover particular sports or just focus on developing general trading behaviour?

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