that’s the height of summer the height
of the tennis season it’s Wimbledon it’s the time of year
that people love to talk about tennis and love to trade and that’s we’re going
to talk about in this video please like and comment on the video below that will
allow me to produce better quality videos and more of them in the future
so the characteristic of the graph surface on tennis is that the ball has a
very low bounce and it’s a very fast service which makes the serve very
dominant when you get good servers like John Isner they tend to dominate the
game with their serve if you look back a few years ago we had this classic game
at Wimbledon that ended on 138 games in the final set between isne and mahute
that was dominated by serf they kept winning one service game after another
and they just couldn’t be broken and that’s the characteristic that you tends
to get at Wimbledon it’s very hard to break service at one of them simply
because of the speed of serve and how important the serve is how dominant it
is within that entire game so to give you a clue if you can win on serve 60%
of the time then you’ll win a game about 80% of the time so if we look at clay
for example you may find that you could probably only win a point 55 percent of
the time in the women’s game for example that would only lead you to win the
overall game itself 60 odd percent of the time but if we go to a Wimbledon and
you’re able to win a point on serve maybe 70 percent of the time it gives
you a near 90 percent chance of actually going on to win the entire game the
server is very dominant and if you can get those first serves in with a decent
amount of speed you stand a really good chance of winning the game so the main
characteristic at Wimbledon is the service it’s very easy to win a service
game very hard to break serve and therefore when a serve is broken the
movement you see in the market is absolutely huge so rather than just know
that fact I went off and researched it and looked at the chance of winning up
points on thirst so we’re talking about player throws up the ball smashes ball
he may get an ace he may have to carry on playing a game for a few more shots
but what is the chance of a player winning a point on surf so I looked at
the male averages on grass and it’s 65.3% percent
of Serbs actually go on to create a point on average so of course some will
be above that some will be below 58 percent for women plays now if you look
at clay that’s only sixty percent for men and fifty-three percent for women
but the benefits of that is that obviously if you get our first serve in
and all you’re able to get a decent serving you’ve got a much much higher
chance of winning again and that’s the dominant characteristic at Wimbledon now
there’s a difference between male and female players but it’s still the same
you get a big hitting women player and that will significantly influence the
outcome of the event you also look at the taller throws as well if you look at
some of the players that have a very long reach they can get the ball down
over the net just that little bit faster which will become much more dominant but
yet very significant impact that will do so if we take that 65 percent chance of
getting that first serve in and going on to win a point then you can actually
translate that into the chance of a break possibly occurring so the
interesting thing is if a player is serving and wins a point on serve 65
percent of the time that actually translates to about an eighty three and
a half percent chance of going on to win the game so if they can maintain that
level look at the stats when the stats come up on the screen and you can see
that they’re serving and getting a point on serve about 65 percent at a time that
tells you that they’ve got it about an eighty three percent chance of winning
the game now the interesting thing about that is it will be it will take at least
four games on serve before the chance of them getting broken is about equal to
the chance of them winning the game so you can see that very very late in the
set and of course very late in the set if a break occurs that will
significantly alter the outcome of the set so obviously the chance of an ace at
Wimbledon is very high because of the dominance of the sir but the interesting
thing when I looked at the stat was that an ace is actually worth more than one
point I know that sounds a bit weird but what tends to happen when a player
served an A is they tend to be a little bit more bullish on their next serve and
that very often leads to two easy points once a player ascertain a really odd
statistic that came out all the data is looking at but
completely truth an ace is worth more than a point so the interesting thing
about looking at a tournament like Wimbledon is actually you sort of almost
are on the side of a server being able to to win their particular game and the
chance of a break is actually significant when it occurs but it’s sort
of less likely to occur but the interesting thing about the individual
situation within a game is that when a player is a point down on serve or maybe
two points down that move can be quite significant much more significant than
you’ve seen in some of the other tennis tournaments so if you’ve taken a
position on a player to be able to get a break of serve and they actually go a
point or two up it very often makes sense during a tournament like Wimbledon
on grass to trade out of that particular point and not wait until the end of the
game so whenever you’re looking for a break of serve in tennis the way to do
it is you need to take your position at a point in the market when the odds are
very lower where there’s less chance of downside within the market and then what
you’re saying is I think there’s going to be a break in the next four games the
next five the next six at Wimbledon you need to be looking at minimum four games
for that break to occur because that’s about the rate at which it begins to
even out and then you’re basically I’m going to lay it this particular point
I’m looking for a break observe you’re waiting for the breakers serve to occur
and hopefully it does and then you can trade out for a profit however if you
get to the point that you’ve predefined within that particular trade and the
break doesn’t occur then you’re going to have to trade out if you want to figure
out where those key points are all you need to do is go into betangel click on
the tennis ball that will bring up tennis trader and that will give you all
of the stats that are going to occur within the match you can look at them by
game and buy set or you can even put your own custom score on there so you
pitch your position into the market you say I think a break is going to occur
within this set number of games and then you trade out for a profit or loss when
that actually happens and if you want to know what the chance of that happening
the odds that the market is going to be at that particular point then look at
tennis trader and it will tell you and like I said when you’re in the middle of
a game and perhaps it looks like you’ve got the opportunity to break the market
will probably shift enough for you to trade out for a profit and of course
there will always be more break points within a match
than actual breaks have served so that’s your opportunity to trade out so one of
the unusual things I found when I was researching will more than looking at
all of the detailed stats was there was something really odd coming back at me
repeatedly and that was when a player was 40-love up on serve they tended to
really go for that serve they were going to try and ice it they were going to try
and crush their opponents but the funny thing that happened in Reverse is when
they will of 40 down or it looked like they were about to be broken
they actually slowed down their serve now of course really at that point
you’ve got nothing to lose so you may as well serve at full speed but what I
actually discovered was the players served at their weakest when they were
love-40 down which doesn’t make any particular sense it must be a
psychological issue obviously they want to get the ball in but the problem is if
you serve slower then you’ve got more chance of losing that point so it’s a
curious bit of psychology that goes into the minds of players when they’re
playing at Wimbledon that when they’re loved 40 down they serve much much
slower than when they’re 40 love up when in fact from an expectancy perspective
they should keep on banging those balls down there as much as possible because
they’ve got a fair chance of winning that point at one room but they don’t
it’s a really interesting statistic that came up when I was looking at all of the
data the interesting thing about that particular statistic that players tend
to serve it slower when they’re under pressure is that you see it across the
entire game so if there are points down they tend to serve slower than if
they’re a point up or the the actual game is tied at that particular point
and if they’re two points down that’s much slower than if they’re a point down
and if they’re three points down it’s even slower and it goes into reverse in
the other area so when a player has served a couple of
good shots they’re likely to serve even harder on that third one but as their
confidence drips away if they perhaps double faulted or perhaps just lost a
point they tend to slow their serve down which gives their opponent the ability
to attack so bear that in mind when you’re trading at Wimbledon
the Wimbledon is a really interesting tournament straight it doesn’t trade
like any of the others breaks of serve tend to occur less frequently but when
they do occur they will be significant the Serb is incredibly dominant that’s a
key characteristic of the game I actually think that it detracts a bit
from the tennis because when you see players playing on clay that can be
quite entertaining whereas at Wimbledon it can just be a case of two guys
slogging it out repeatedly so yeah look for that break a serve understand that
it’s going to be really significant at Wimbledon but also understand that it’s
a bit harder to find that at other times you you

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Dennis Veasley

6 thoughts on “Betfair Tennis trading – Trading the Grass courts of Wimbledon”

  1. Thx Peter, nice slice at the end lol:D Please upload some of your tennis trades, cant figure out whether it is better to just punt it, instead of trading or not, cause it seems pretty much like gambling 😀

  2. This is purely from memory but I seem to recall Ivanisevic serving an ace on his 2nd serve at Match Point down against Henman in their semi.

  3. being 0-40 down the serving is thinking "shall i waste my energy trying to win this game or save it to try and break back on the next game" IMO

  4. Your statistical tenacity is awe inspiring. Where do you find the time to do all of your other trading, teaching, software development, and running a business, as well as all of the statistical analysis that you obviously do, in addition to all of the great videos and being a great dad? Do you ever sleep? 😛 Please keep up the good work, and thank you.

  5. Hi there, I'm new to this. Can you tell me more about the premium charge on Betfair and what to do as an alternative? 20% of the profits is quite a chunk. Might as well go out and get a job or trade on the FOREX markets. I was a little disheartened to hear about this charge. Not completely put off, but a little shocked. You must pay a fortune in charges.

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