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if you want notification of new videos as they’re released so one of the things
that you’ll notice when you’re Betfair trading is there are many aspects to it
I think it’s a common misconception that you turn up so when you teaches you a
simple trading method and that’s it you just run off and start printing money
now that would be nice wouldn’t it but the reality is somewhat different and
you have to look at many different aspects of the trade that you’re doing
in the way that you trade in the sport that you’re looking at and and so on so
it’s many it’s multifaceted you know there’s just not one aspect to it just
because you have a strategy doesn’t mean that your buddy trade profitably you
have to look at many different things so over your vast number of years I’ve
explored every single aspect of the market how the market works why it’s
priced that way what influences price and all of those things but one of the
areas that I’ve also looked at is the psychology of trading now that’s not
just the psychology of the way that you trade I’ve explored I probably spent a
big chunk of time over the last five to ten years exploring specifically the
psychology and again that’s multifaceted because it’s not just your psychology
but you have to look at the psychology of the sport underneath and the thing
that sort of prompted me to look at the psychology of a sport predominantly was
tennis because when I first started trading tennis you know a player would
be dominant and you sort of think I’ll they’re gonna win this so I won’t bother
hedging it at which point it all fell apart and the other way around you would
think are all is lost I may as well take this loss and forget about it at which
point it all turned around in the other direction so I was thinking well that’s
odd so my introduction to looking at the psychology of sport and I’ve done it on
all different sports football tennis golf and to an extent racing it that’s a
little bit more curious you know you realize that there’s stuff
going on within the match itself so what I was looking at in tennis was choking
which is what you can see on the screen behind me players would choke at certain
key points within the match and I’m thinking wow that’s interesting I wonder
if I can understand why that happens so yeah I started delving into psychology
of things if you’re interested and do you want to know what sort of books I
read it’s these sort of books here because I’m really interested in things
that are at a deep level I wants to understand what actually goes on inside
people’s heads because ultimately trading is about what happens next so
when you’re looking at an individual sport you can model it you can map it
but you also want to understand what influences that price activity because
everybody else can model it to varying degrees and they may have different
angles to you so you have to have an angle on that but yeah if you can
understand what’s gonna you know what’s going on inside the players minds that
will help you understand what’s going to happen next within the individual sport
so yeah if you look at all individual sports they have these characteristics
I’ve spotted all sorts of interesting things in golf and in football and in
tennis and in racing they cut across the entire market for a number of reasons
whether it’s to do with the betting whether it’s to do with the actual sport
itself so it’s really interesting to dig underneath that so I went off and read
loads of books about the psychology of tennis trying to understand what coaches
were telling the players and how that could give me sort of leverage in terms
of trying to understand what players were likely to do in a in an individual
situation within a match now the thing is you know how deep do you want to go
because there are multiple layers in which you can go down deeper and deeper
and deeper so you know I spend a lot of time on the periphery of what’s possible
I’m really interested in doing something new and interesting and exciting and so
you know you don’t have to go to this level to trade effectively however if
you do then your bidders squeeze out a little bit more of an edge so I’ve often
spoken to professional sports people to try and understand the way that they
approach something and understand what influence is that because I know that
that will allow me to sort of get in slightly ahead
of what is going on it’s sort of almost magical when you sort of say I think
this is going to happen and then sure enough before long it does happen and I
remember in football once I sat next to a football manager and he was getting
annoyed by something and he made a statement that suddenly reflected and
made me think oh hold on a second is that true and sure enough it was because
a few minutes later it happened and he turned to me and said like I told you
say so it’s interesting because or a combination of all these things don’t a
ramble for too long here have got me interested in the psychology of the
actual sport itself so yeah you can have at at a top level or you can go much
much deeper if you so wish but that was my incentive was to try and understand
exactly what would happen next so on tennis I was pondering for ages about
how could I actually get inside the head of a player you know what is there that
I could see that would influence exactly what was likely to happen going forward
so I was sort of pondering about what to do on this for some time and when I did
an example came up that was absolutely you know set perfectly for exactly what
I was looking for so it was the 2014 Australian Open final between Stan
varenka and Rafa Nadal and it was fairly apparent fairly early on that Rafa had a
problem now at first he didn’t really show it and the crowd were getting a bit
upset because he was taking medical timeouts and stuff like that but before
long it became apparent that he had a bit of a back spasm if you’ve ever had
one you know how painful that is and and basically went on to lose the
final simply because of this back problem now after every match or every
race and you know I always go back and look through data especially when
interesting things happen and archive all of the data that I can get my hands
on and then go back and look and see if I could find something so I looked into
the data on that particular match which you can also see on the screen and I
that sort of was leading me in the direction of could
I have possibly predicted this could I have worked out that Rafa had a problem
before everybody became generally aware of it you know could there were there
little tells that I could pick up on that were able to give me an indication
as to what was going on in his head and that was a reflection of what was going
on in his body so I hope toward the data but didn’t really pick up on on anything
from there but then all of a sudden it dawned on me that what I was really
looking for was the serve basically if you’ve got a back problem you’re not
going to be served at full of strength and therefore you saw his service speed
starts to drop off so that was the first indication that there was a problem and
I was thinking about this and you know in the case of an injury you know that’s
fairly obvious if you can’t reach the ball and you can’t hit it as hard that’s
going to show up in the data and you can act upon that and that got me thinking
about well I wonder if I look at individual points exactly how that
influences the outcome of the serve does that give me some insight to look inside
the tennis players mind so I set off to have a look and if there is a difference
and if tennis players play different points differently and the short answer
is yes they do so there you go there’s the answer to the video but obviously
I’m going to go in a little bit more depth so when you look at service
ratings you go to the ATP or WTA sites and you can get loads of data in terms
of how individual players are performing so when you look at the first serve
first serve percentages for the men you know sort of in the late 60s perhaps
even early 70s at the very very highest level and that Officer Li declines as
you go down the rankings but basically there’s a really good chance that you’re
going to win a point on your first surf so if we look at the data behind me you
can see that getting a first serve in is quite high but then winning a point on
that first serve is even higher so if you get that first serve in then
basically you will get a point or it’s very likely that you’ll get a point so
you can see here at ranges sort of you know late seventies early eighties for
the top-ranked players if you get their serve in you’re going to win a point so
I was quite interested in you know if they’re nervous about getting
serve in there probably slow it down or perhaps you know if they’re running away
with again perhaps they’ll slow it down or perhaps they’ll speed it you know I
wanted to know it’s like what actually happens within that particular scenario
so imagine it you’re 40 loved up you’re going to serve you know you may as well
try something clever perhaps or perhaps try and humiliate your opponent by doing
an unusual serve we have seen this in a couple of tournaments but if you love 40
down you’ve got to win that particular point if you don’t win that point then
you’re going to get broken and therefore you probably want to put in a really
really good so if you’re gonna hit as hard as you can and try and get the best
serve possible so that your opponent doesn’t have the chance to return the
serve because you know if you have to play a second serve then obviously the
issue that you’re gonna have is the second service obviously slower and the
chance of you winning a point as you can see from the stats behind me on second
serve is much lower as well so I thought well you know let’s not try and
prejudice the data let’s go off and find some data and see if we can understand
exactly what that says and if that describes what’s going on within the
head of a tennis player when they’re playing a tennis match and that is what
I did now the interesting thing is when you look at data across tennis
tournaments now there is unbelievable amounts of data available so this data
taken from behind me is on the ATP site and this basically lays out how a player
serves at certain points within the game I mean how better does it get than that
it’s amazing how much data has come on and it’s an absolute godsend for sports
traders because for many years I would gather data myself and it’s long slow
laborious and you weren’t guaranteed an edge now it’s all just presented to you
free of charge and you can interrogate have a look it’s how individual player
traits are on a tennis court so my recommendation for you if you play
tennis is go off to the ATP site have a look at how they’re likely to play and
that will give you a little bit of insight into how a player is likely to
respond given certain score lines it’s absolutely wonderful to be able to do
this now when I was looking at it what I did was I went back through all of the
data there are some really good databases on tennis that will LA to
lookup of a ride two different characteristics of those
individual players and rigor data that’s collected on a regular basis and I
basically arranged all of them in the possible possible range of scores that
you get within a match so it’s 40 love love 40 15 or 30 40 40 30 and so on and
you can see them all ranked behind me on this particular screen and what I
actually did was I applied a rank to them which I’ll explain in a second but
you can also see there’s a balance figure which is basically saying the
player is very far ahead or very far behind so you can see the higher the
balance figure the more likely it is that the player is behind on points but
basically if it’s a negative figure than their many points in front of their
opponent and you can see that there’s a rough correlation and that the negative
balance numbers are at the top and the positive balance numbers are at the
bottom in other words the the ones at the top are showing when a player is
dominant and is winning that particular game easily and the ones at the bottom
or where they’re not winning the game so easily so what is the rank however I
ranked them then because I’m obviously not ranking them by balance because you
can see a -3 at 1415 and you can see there’s a two appearing sort of just
over halfway down that particular list but what you’re actually looking at is
the rank is the speed of serve so basically when a player is 40-love up
they serve at their absolute fastest and when they love 40 down they serve at
their absolute slowest which is a bit weird I didn’t quite expect it to be
like that because if you’re about to lose the game you would think that they
would probably serve a little bit harder but in fact it seems to be the other way
around which was a little bit odd and if they’re 40-love up you know perhaps
they’ve got nothing to lose so they may as well serve it but look at some of the
discrepancies you see here advantage 40 40 30 40 15 are all subtly slightly
different but if it’s at level 15 or 30 or 40 all they sort of cluster it seems
to sort of gravitate to a mean around that particular point
time so it was interesting to see because you know what we’re effectively
doing is we’re not looking at how faster a player serves at any one particular
point because if they were logical rational beings they would basically
just serve the same on every single point perhaps varying it slightly now in
a game but what we actually see in fact has a discrepancy according to the score
within that underlying game so different players play different points
differently at different parts of the game which was quite curious and I
hadn’t expected to find such a wide variation now the date you see behind me
is grouped across a whole range of players so it’s a general look at what
happens individual players do play slightly differently like I said that’s
if you look at the site that I showed on the slide beforehand that would give you
a little bit of deeper insight into how they’re likely to play but what I was
more interested in is is there something there is there a discrepancy between our
40 love and I love 40 because if there is then that probably means that you’re
getting a look inside their mind in terms of how they’re likely to play so
yeah when I looked at tennis I figured out the server speed was giving me a
proxy for basically how confident a player was that they were likely to win
a point and using that sort of data and will basically allow you to improve your
ability to be able to track a match because you’ll be able to see when
they’re feeling confident or not and that gives you a little bit of a heads
up as to whether you think that they’re actually about to turn this match around
or not or indeed how they’re feeling at that particular moment in time and it
tends to find that winners when players are confident they tend to go for
winners more than when they’re not confident and in fact if they stop
trying to hit the winners they’re waiting for the other player to make a
mistake so if that other player does tend to go for the winners then the
whole match is imbalanced at that particular point so like I said it’s
like how deep down the rabbit hole do you want to go but nonetheless
you know I was looking for some sort of a proxy for how a player was thinking
and it turned out that actually had their service beat that they had on surf
was giving me a bit of a clue as to how that was likely to play out so yeah you
know there’s a lot of depth there don’t expect you to immediately jump into the
market and do something based upon this I thought it would give you an
interesting level of insight into how a tennis player thinks when they’re
playing again you

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Dennis Veasley

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