– One of the most popular sports to bet on in the entire world might surprise you. We’re talking DFS Tennis on
Draft Kings and Fan Duel. It’s part one, starting right now. (lightning strikes)
(upbeat music) What’s up, guys? Joe Holka, here, welcome to another daily fantasy sports and betting video. If it’s you’re first
time here and you want to become a profitable DraftKings player and get better at betting, start now by subscribing to the channel and make sure you click
that notification bell so you don’t miss anything along the way. If you’re already a Holkamaniac,
you know what to do. Smash that like button,
and we’ll get started. All right, guys, we’re gonna
start with the scoring over on Draft Kings and a little
bit of the pricing as well. But one of the things that
I really want to highlight in this first section
is that, in DFS Tennis, we really want to target guys
that can give us winners. (lightning strikes) – I think what matters most
in DraftKings tennis by far is picking winners.
– Okay. – Because when you dig deeper, and actually look at what the stats are, like 90% of them are directly correlated with winning the match,
they basically like, describe the result of the match. So like, if you’re going through, games one, sets one, where it comes down to game differential too,
because you get knocked for the number of games you lose, and that kind of thing.
– Okay. – So that’s definitely the biggest thing to note for people that are new to the game, like the main point of it is picking people who
are gonna win their match compared to their salary,
and there are other things that go into it, but
like 80 to 90% of scoring is associated with picking winners. – So basically, is that
kind of how they’re doing the pricing, based on kind of, the Vegas Odds, or is it more skewed towards a couple other things
that I’m not thinking of? – Yeah, so pricing is, generally follows opening Vegas odd lines, and the thing to know about tennis is that tennis is one of the most bet on sports in the entire world, I
think it’s second only to soccer, according to my sources. But, and that’s something
that American people might not know either, because it’s a little less popular here. – I never would have known that. But honestly like, that makes me trust the Vegas Odds even, a little bit more. If they’re getting a ton of action, there’s obviously a ton of incentive to make those lines pretty strong. (lightning strikes) By the way guys, if
you’ve ever found value in any of my videos or live streams, one of the best ways to support what I’m doing here for free, is to throw me the follow over on Twitter, and if you’re new to the community, I also do a ton of content exclusive to Instagram, so make sure you take a few seconds and make
sure you’re following me over there, I really appreciate it. (lightning strikes) – Basically, what the pricing is, is the price is usually very good. On occasion, I’d say
once or twice a month, they terribly botch a slate, where they miss price one or two people. And when that happens, there
is so much overlap on that day. However, that day becomes
a fantastic GPP day. There was one day where a person was like minus 300 favor, and they were
priced like a massive dog. And that person ended up being, like 85 or 90% owned in GPP, and not even just that,
like if you have a person that’s minus 150, and they’re priced like a minus, or a plus 120 dog, that person’s gonna be drastically owned. So if you just don’t
really like that person on a day, and you’ve looked into it, that can be a great GPP
day, because that person’s ownership can be very high due to what the Vegas price line is. – Aces plus Double Faults, like
the kind of random bonuses. So talk a little bit about some of these other stats
past just the winners. – Yeah for sure, so, two
of the counting stats that are recorded are
Aces and Double Faults. Those are relatively
independent of the outcome of the match, and they’re more specific to a player’s general
profile and background. And the one thing, when
DraftKings Tennis started, people were like, saw that
you get a bonus for Aces and were like, oh I’m
gonna hammer Ace guys. That must be like, the answer. Pick the guys that get the most Aces and that’ll help me win. But the important thing to note, is that, so you get minus
points for a Double Fault. If people don’t know, in
tennis, a Double Fault is when you miss both your serves, you lose a point, it’s a bad thing. Ace is when you hit a serve,
and they don’t touch it like a good thing, so you get a, I’m not sure if you have
the scoring up on screen. But yeah, you get a little
bonus for Aces and– – Yep I’ve got the scoring
right up so everyone can see it, and I forgot
you’re on a phone, you’re not following along with us. No, that’s still cool, so yeah, people back at home can see the DraftKings score right now. So it looks like there’s
a plus 10 Ace bonus. And then there’s, some
other bonuses here too. So you’re saying like, chasing these isn’t necessarily the way to go. – No, so the other important part is that they go up incrementally too. It’s like .04 points, for an
Ace or that type of thing also. But so, I’ve dug into the data pretty heavily on this, and on average, the difference that incorporating Aces and Double Faults makes, into somebody’s scoring profile is approximately three points. – Okay. – Which is nothing, so scores,
yeah, so general scores for DraftKings tennis losers will score between 10 to 40 points in general, and winners will score
between like 60 and 80 points. All those depend on margin of victory, or margin of loss, and like I just said, Ace and Double Faults, on average, account for three points.
– So not a lot. (lightning strikes) Before we get back at
it, if you like my work, and you wanna support my
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out on the next video. So we talked a little bit about winners in the beginning of this video. But I wanna dive a little bit deeper into why Aces are so important, and why we wanna take full advantage of the Double Fault situation
when it comes to bonuses. (lightning strikes) – The important thing is
extremes always matter. There are, that legitimately
stream out enough Aces, or you can predict that
they Double Fault a ton. It either limits your upside related to that player, or increases your upside related to that player, so like, if you feel that that player’s like on par in terms of win percentage
with a similar person, then yeah, taking somebody
that has the chance to have that huge Ace upside does help. But it’s definitely an ancillary piece of the process of picking players. – Yeah I mean, if you
can pick six winners, you’re gonna do well most days. You’re gonna cash everything. So pegging winners is
the most important thing. The two other things
that are most important are serve guys, and serve
bots, people that get 10, 15, 20, 30 Aces, they get a lot because that’s where you get
a lot of your pluses from. So if you are a heavy serve guy or girl, that is a benefit, and
also Double Fault boxes, they’re very difficult. So the way that I look at it, and I’ve had some talks about this, is if you are a high Ace guy, let’s say you’re John Isner, you are going to out score any loser. If you go three sets,
you’re gonna out score any other loser that went three sets. If you lose in two sets,
you’re gonna out score every other loser that lost in two sets because of your Ace numbers. If you win in three sets,
you’re gonna beat every winner in three sets, if you win in two sets, you’re gonna be a good scorer regardless. Like you might not be the top because sometimes there’s
just a massive massacre at same point during the day, and that person’s on top,
but if you are John Isner, and you win in two sets,
you’re probably gonna score 75 plus points, which is gonna be one of the better scores of the day. So serve bots are very good. On the flip side, people
that Double Fault a lot, they are massively, drastically
worse in terms of score. If they lose in three sets,
they’re gonna be worse than anyone else who loses in three sets. They lose in two sets,
they’re gonna be the player on the slate, so it’s a situation where, if you have a coin flip
between someone that gets a lot of Double Faults, and someone that doesn’t get a lot of Double Faults, you take the one that doesn’t
get a lot of Double Faults. On the flip side, if
someone had a lot of Aces, versus someone that
doesn’t, you want the guy that has a lot of Aces. (lightning strikes) – Just a reminder, if you’re looking to take your game to that next level, I do offer one on one coaching. So check out joeholka.com/coaching if you want a little bit
more information on that. Actually gonna be rolling out some group coaching sessions
during NFL this year, that I’m super excited about. So keep an eye on that page,
or you can always ask me any questions you have in the
comments below this video. If you prefer just to continue learning in this group setting,
that’s totally fine. I always like to remind people though, if you have an Amazon Prime account, you automatically have access to a free Twitch Prime subscription. So with that, you get access
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of those live streams. There’s a bunch of subscriber-only perks that you’ll get access to as well. So give me a follow over
at twitch.tv/JoeHolka so you make sure you don’t
miss anything over there. Probably the biggest
difference in DFS Tennis than other sports, is we
actually have men and women. So there’s different strategies when it comes to both of these. I know one carries quite
a bit more variance than the other, so I
thought we’d spend some time and talk a bit that now. (lightning strikes) – Men are better at serving, so, serve can act kind of
as like a neutralizer, or a normalizer in terms of like, players, worst players being able to keep up with better players. Because they might be worse over all, but their serves can still
keep them in the game whereas in women’s, their
serves are less impactful. Still very impactful, but less impactful in terms of the outcomes in matches. So, what that leads into, is
that men have lower spreads than women, because guys
who are still highly likely to lose can keep up,
and hold serve enough, that’s the big term in tennis. I don’t know how tennis
savvy your audience is. But holding serve means you win the game when you’re serving, and breaking serve means you’re able to win the game while your opponent’s serving. And that’s kind of like, the
big delineator in the match. But yeah, so let me go back
to the men’s versus women’s. Women have larger spreads because of what I just talked about. And that can give them
slightly higher range of outcomes, naturally.
– That’s gotta be good for GPPs though, like
trying to kind of embrace that variance a little bit. – Yeah exactly, so one thing
that’s really important to look at, like women’s underdogs, they have a much higher
straight set percentage than men’s underdogs,
so you also get a bonus for winning in straight set. But that’s really what you’re looking for. You’re looking for people
who will win the match and not lose a set, like that’s, the straight set bonus is the only bonus that you want to–
– Okay. So as far as the bonuses
on the screen right now, straight sets bonus plus six is awarded for winning a match without losing a set. This is probably a big one then. – Yeah, so that happens in about like, what’s the number, I believe it’s 64% of matches–
– Oh, so that’s massive then.
– And in straight sets. Yeah, so getting that is really
important in the process. And so like, women’s underdogs, they do have a higher
straight set percentage. Like women’s winners just
tend to win or lose by more, and yeah, that definitely plays into the GPP versus cash, and like
risk tolerance aspect of it. But like, one of the most
important things about tennis, is you can’t just play
all the women in like, you have to be really
sensitive to other factors in terms of predicting
the actual outcomes too. So like, that’s why I enjoy it so much, because like, you’re
balancing all the game theory and the DraftKings side of it, versus also evaluating on the tennis side, like who are good players? – The women can get
massacred out of nowhere, it seems like, more frequently. Like Novak Djokovic, and
Rafael Nadal and those guys, generally aren’t going to lose badly or lose a match that they shouldn’t lose. Women could, that’s another thing though. Is like, top price players generally really struggle to pay off their value, because people below them are almost, you’re never gonna have a gap. So for example, a 10.4K person is gonna score similarly
to the 16 other people that win on a day, so
it’s a situation where, if you’re paying up, that
person’s generally not going to pay off his salary almost ever. You’re just basically praying, if that person wins in straight sets, then you get a mad result, so
it’s a situation like that. But yeah, like the men serve better. So women, you see more breaks, and you see sometimes
more lopsided matches, where someone just can’t really serve, and you see like a 6-1, 6-1 type match. A lot of the men usually are
a lot more closer than that because they usually hold their serves. So their matches go later in sets. So you might see like
a 6-4, 6-3 type of win, compared to a woman’s
match that’s 6-1, 6-1. But they might have more Aces than that, and the Women’s match might
have more Double Faults. So the men and women are very difficult. (lightning strikes) – You wanna learn more about how to become a profitable
Daily Fantasy Sports player, and how to get better at betting, start now by hitting that subscribe icon in the bottom right hand corner so you don’t miss anything, have a ton of DFS courses on demand
for other sports as well. So definitely check those out. Thank you so much for watching, and I’ll see you guys next time.

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Dennis Veasley

2 thoughts on “2019 Daily Fantasy Sports 🎾#1 Tennis BETTING Tips [Men vs Women Tennis] DFS Winning Lineup ADVICE”

  1. What is the single most important piece of advice you would give someone playing DFS Tennis for the first time during Wimbledon?

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